Why I Am Hoping for an LSU Win This Week

What?  I’m hoping for Georgia to get beat this week?  You’ve got to be kidding!!!!!

Uh…nope.  There is actually a method to the madness here, so just track with me.

My dad, a very devout LSU fan, has noted that something like 90 percent of all teams that have ever beaten LSU over the years have failed to cover the spread in their next game–if they haven’t lost outright.  So the staff here at Everyone’s Entitled to Joe’s Opinion has done a little research, and it turns out that there is something to this idea of an “LSU effect” which causes teams that beat LSU to struggle in subsequent games.

The “LSU effect” certainly holds true for Georgia.  In the past two decades, Georgia has beaten LSU six times.  Each time, Georgia has lost the following game.

What about other teams that have beaten LSU?  Well, I was able to do some research over at ESPN.com, because they have scores of all the games going back all the way to 2003.  2008 was something of an anomaly:  four of the five teams that beat LSU that year suffered no ill effect in their subsequent games.  Georgia was the only team to suffer any adverse effect from beating LSU in 2008; they lost to Florida 49-10 in their next game.  But then, Florida was so good that year, and Georgia so not-ready-for-prime-time, that Georgia would probably have gotten killed by Florida no matter who they played the week before.

But for the years from 2003 to 2007, LSU only lost ten times.  Four of those teams lost outright in their next games, two definitely failed to cover the spread, and two more may have failed to cover the spread.  (Auburn beat LSU 10-9 in 2004, the next week they beat The Citadel 33-3.  In 2006 Auburn beat LSU 7-3, the next week they beat Buffalo 38-7.  I have no idea what the spread was in either of those games, but I somehow doubt that 30 points was enough to cover the spread against The Citadel, or that 31 was enough to cover against Buffalo.)

Georgia plays Tennessee next week.  I sure don’t want to see Georgia suffer any adverse effect from beating LSU up in Knoxville next week.  Tennessee owned Georgia throughout the 90’s; I would like to see Georgia make up some of the ground that was lost.  And I would especially hate to see us lose to Lane Kiffin, the way he has been running his mouth this year.

Here is how Georgia has done in the years when they have lost to LSU:

YEAR        RESULT AGAINST LSU                         OUTCOME OF NEXT GAME
1990        Lost 18-13                                            Beat Southern Miss 18-17
2003        Lost 17-10                                           Beat Alabama 37-23
2003        Lost 34-13 (SEC Championship)    Beat Purdue 34-27 (Citrus Bowl)

And here is how Georgia has done when they have beaten LSU.  Notice the difference:

YEAR    RESULT AGAINST LSU                            OUTCOME OF NEXT GAME
1991    Won 31-10                                              Lost to Alabama 10-0
1998    Won 28-27                                             Lost to Tennessee 22-3
1999    Won 23-22                                              Lost to Tennessee 37-20
2004    Won 45-16                                              Lost to Tennessee 19-14
2005  Won 34-14 (SEC Championship)  Lost to West Virginia 38-35 (Sugar Bowl)
2008    Won 52-38                                              Lost to Florida 49-10

And here is how other teams have done after beating LSU going back to 2003:

OPPONENT    RESULT AGAINST LSU            OUTCOME OF NEXT GAME

2008:
Florida        Won 51-21                                 Beat Kentucky 63-5
Georgia        Won 52-38                               Lost to Florida 49-10
Alabama        Won 27-21                              Beat Mississippi State 32-7
Ole Miss        Won 31-13                                 Beat Mississippi State 45-0
Arkansas        Won 31-30                 Beat Missouri State 45-10 (2009 opener)

2007:
Kentucky        Won 43-37                              Lost to Florida 45-37
Arkansas        Won 50-48                   Beat Western Illinois 28-24 (2008 opener)

2006:
Auburn        Won 7-3                                            Beat Buffalo 38-7
Florida        Won 23-10                                         Lost to Auburn 27-17

2005:
Tennessee        Won 30-27                                      Beat Ole Miss 27-10
Georgia   Won 34-14 (SEC Championship)  Lost to West Virginia 38-35 (Sugar Bowl)

2004:
Auburn        Won 10-9                             Beat The Citadel 33-3
Georgia        Won 45-16                           Lost to Tennessee 19-14
Iowa        Won 25-20 (Citrus Bowl)    Beat Ball State 50-0 (2005 opener)

2003:
Florida        Won 19-7                                 Beat Arkansas 33-28

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